(26) Obama flies in to doubts over US place in Asia — FT.com

https://www.ft.com/content/a3a36128-7121-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907

Obama flies in to doubts over US place in Asia

On the two visits he makes to Asia every year, Barack Obama tries to deliver a simple message about American staying power. The US sees its future inextricably linked to the Asia-Pacific, he tells his audiences, and it is here to stay.
Yet as the president embarks on what will be his farewell tour of the region, he is facing a growing wave of doubts about the long-term durability of American commitments to Asia.
In a trip that Mr Obama’s advisers might have hoped at the start of the year would be something of a victory lap for his “pivot” to Asia, the president is likely to spend a lot of his time explaining to friends and allies what the political mood in the US means for its foreign policy in the region.
Not only have many Asians been rattled by Donald Trump’s threats to tear up US alliances with Japan and South Korea, but they are also anxious about the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation trade deal Mr Obama has said is central to US engagement with Asia but which is now on political life-support after being opposed by both presidential candidates.
Mr Obama received the bluntest warning yet about the geopolitical stakes involved with TPP last month when he hosted Singaporean prime minister Lee Hsien Loong at a White House press conference.
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Timeline: Obama’s Asian journey

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Jan 2009 Hawaiian-born Barack Obama takes office as, in his words, the US’s “first Pacific president”.
Feb 2009 In a symbolic move, Hillary Clinton travels to East Asia on her first big foreign trip as secretary of state.
Nov 2009 Mr Obama, above, is frustrated by a lack of concrete results at his first China summit with then president Hu Jintao.
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“You have put a reputation on the line [with TPP],” said Mr Lee. “And if, at the end, waiting at the altar, the bride doesn’t arrive, I think there are people who are going to be very hurt, not just emotionally but really damaged for a long time to come.”
He pointed, in particular, to Japan, which had made politically difficult concessions to sign up to TPP. “The Japanese, living in an uncertain world, depending on an American nuclear umbrella, will have to say, on trade, the Americans could not follow through,” he said. “If it’s life and death, whom do I have to depend upon? It’s an absolutely serious calculation, which will not be said openly, but I have no doubts will be thought.”
Mr Obama will spend most of the next week in Asia, first at the G20 summit in China, then at the annual East Asia Summit in Laos. In a speech during the Laos leg of the trip, he will give an overview of his approach to Asia over the past seven and a half years — the so-called “pivot” that seeks to place the Asia-Pacific at the centre of US foreign policy and which demonstrates a willingness to push back against China’s attempt to dominate areas such the South China Sea.
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2010-2011

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Jul 2010At an Asean meeting, Mrs Clinton says freedom of navigation in South China Sea is a US national interest.
Nov 2011 Mr Obama announces a marine deployment to Australia. In a speech to the country’s parliament he hails the drawdown of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Subsequently he becomes the first US president to attend the East Asia Summit.
Dec 2011 Mrs Clinton, pictured meeting Aung San Suu Kyi, above, becomes the first US secretary of state to visit Myanmar in 50 years.
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He will also conduct a series of potentially tricky bilateral meetings — with Chinese president Xi Jinping on Saturday, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Vladimir Putin during the G20 on Sunday and Monday and with the mercurial new president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, while he is in Laos.
While the Obama “pivot” has involved greater security co-operation with many allies and a new burst of diplomacy with Southeast Asia, the president has always insisted that TPP was an essential element of America’s ability to shape Asia’s future — a position Hillary Clinton endorsed as secretary of state, before withdrawing her support on seeing the final agreement.
“TPP allows us to establish the rules of the road for trade and commerce,” said Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser, ahead of the trip. If Congress were not to pass the deal, “we would be ceding the region to countries like China, who do not set the same types of high standards for trade agreements”. The administration still hopes Congress will approve the TPP during the lame duck session after the election.
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2014

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Jun 2014Mr Obama says he will send a small number of troops back to Iraq, above, to fight Isis. The number rises in subsequent years.
Sept 2014 US begins air strikes against Isis targets in Syria after the extremist group kills US hostages.
Nov 2014 Mr Obama and President Xi Jinping of China agree a carbon emissions deal, paving the way for the worldwide UN climate agreement a year later.
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Evan Medeiros, former Asia director in the Obama White House, said that while there was always anxiety in the region about long-term US commitments, that scepticism was particularly “heavy” at the moment. However, failure to approve TPP would not be a fatal blow to US strategy.
“There is no doubt it would be a challenge to US credibility. We would have to work much harder and be more creative,” he said. “But it is not as if everyone in the region would decide that they are giving up on us and resigning themselves to China being dominant. It is not a strategic shock.”
Mike Green, who was the White House Asia director under George W Bush, said the election had “unnerved friends and allies” and that Mrs Clinton’s “opposition to TPP had gone deeper than Japan or the other TPP partners had expected”.
He said that the Laos leg of the trip would allow Mr Obama to emphasise his “signature achievement” which was the extensive engagement he had pioneered in Southeast Asia — including Myanmar, Vietnam and the Philippines. With the exception of Thailand, “every country in the region has improved relations with the US over the past eight years”.
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2015-2016

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Oct 2015 The US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries agree the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Some see it as a move to contain China. As anger rises about trade on the campaign trail, Mrs Clinton — who previously hailed the TPP as a “gold standard” — says she opposes the deal.
Mar 2016 Mr Obama warns Mr Xi to back down in China-Philippines confrontation over South China Sea flashpoint.
Jul 2016 Mr Obama announces a delay in the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. UN tribunal rules against China in the South China Sea dispute.
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