sábado, 12 de noviembre de 2016

(13) Trump victory: corporate winners and losers




Trump victory: corporate winners and losers


© FT Graphic / Getty

Companies doing business in Mexico, heavily exposed to global trade, or reliant upon US regulation were judged the big losers under a Donald Trump presidency by international stock market investors on Wednesday.
Markets' reaction to Mr Trump's election victory softened as the day unfolded, but shareholders immediately marked out those businesses potentially hit by his policies, as well as many clear winners, most notably in pharmaceuticals and biotech, oil and gas, and defence.
Shares in Vestas, the Danish wind turbine manufacturer, were among the biggest fallers as investors worried about the future of renewable energy.
Fears over Mr Trump's rhetoric against trade and Mexicans led to the biggest one-day fall ever in the peso and hurt many global businesses with big operations there.
BBVA, the Spanish bank that makes about half its profits in Mexico, and Tate & Lyle, which has about 10 per cent of its earnings in pesos, lost 6 per cent and 12 per cent of their market value respectively. Carmakers that have a big manufacturing presence in Mexico, such as Daimler, BMW and Fiat Chrysler, all saw their shares fall by more than 3 per cent initially before staging a recovery.
But it was not all doom and gloom. Fresnillo, the precious metals producer that incurs most of its costs in pesos, was one of the day's big winners as its shares rose 7 per cent.
Similarly, drugmakers, which had been worried about a crackdown on product prices if Hillary Clinton had become president, rallied in relief, with shares in Novo Nordisk, the Danish drugmaker battered this year over the hostile environment in the US, gaining 4 per cent.



Trump's corporate winners and losers


Overseas companies selling into the US warned of possible slowdown in trade. Oliver Bäte, chief executive of Allianz, the German insurer, said: "I expect an expansionary fiscal policy but also a tendency towards a protectionist trade policy with far-reaching negative consequences for the global economy."
He added that he expected Mr Trump to stop TTIP, the proposed trade deal between the US and Europe. That, added to Mr Trump's frequent criticism of existing deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, caused investors to initially shun companies exposed to global commerce, such as AP Moller-Maersk, the Danish conglomerate that owns the world's largest container shipping business, and Deutsche Post, the German logistics group.
European business leaders also urged Mr Trump to eschew some of his more outspoken anti-corporate comments. "The 45th president of the US is an entrepreneur," said Emma Marcegaglia, head of BusinessEurope, the lobby group. "We hope that his decisions will be driven by political and economic reason."
In the US, chief executives from more than 1,100 companies wrote an open letter to Mr Trump warning of "an urgent need to restore faith in our vital economic and government institutions" after the election.
Here, FT reporters assess the impact on individual sectors.

Pharmaceuticals: winner


© FT Graphic / Bloomberg

Mr Trump's US election win gave most large pharmaceutical stocks a boost on Wednesday, as investors predicted that his administration would take a more lenient approach to drug pricing than a Democratic White House, writes David Crow in New York.
Shares in Pfizer, the world's largest pure-play drugmaker by market value, jumped 10 per cent in early-morning trading in New York, while those in Allergan and Merck were up 10 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.
Both Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump had outlined plans to deal with the soaring price of prescription drugs, but Mr Trump's promises were more vague and caused less consternation among investors.
Conversely, Mrs Clinton published a plethora of detailed policy proposals that convinced investors that she would crack down on the cost of medicines and therefore crimp industry profits. Ian Read, chief executive of Pfizer, had warned that her plans would amount to the kind of drug "rationing" seen in some European countries, such as the UK.


Mrs Clinton had warned that she would crack down on "outrageous price gouging", if elected, after Martin Shkreli, a pharmaceuticals entrepreneur, prompted global outrage by raising the price of a life-saving Aids drug from $13.50 to $750 per pill.


Mr Trump's plan, entitled "Healthcare reform to make America great again", was centred on a pledge to repeal the Affordable Healthcare Act, known as "Obamacare" — and made little reference to the price of drugs.
His main proposal involves letting consumers import cheaper versions of drugs from overseas, but executives believe it will gain little traction because the medicines would not be manufactured to US safety standards.
Citi analyst Andrew Baum said that he expected "near-term sector outperformance driven by a relief rally given the likely inability of the Democrats to attain the presidency, the House or Congress". In the longer term, however, "we see significant continued legislative risk" he said regarding pricing.
But the share price performance of large healthcare groups was more mixed. Humana and Aetna gained 1 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, as investors wagered that a Trump administration might look more kindly on their planned merger, which has been blocked regulators.
However, shares in UnitedHealth, Cigna and Anthem all fell in early-morning trading. Although few companies made much profit from plans sold under the Affordable Care Act, some believe it widened the pool of potential customers covered under more lucrative policies.

Oil & gas: winner



Mr Trump has said he would seek to make the US "energy independent", and has proposed opening new areas of the country to oil and gas development in pursuit of that goal, writes Ed Crooks in New York.
He has also pledged to "cancel" the Paris climate accord, agreed by almost 200 countries including the US at the end of last year, and to scrap President Barack Obama's proposed curbs on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
These policies are likely to support coal-fired power generation. However, any revival in coal will be limited by competition from cheap shale gas.
Energy companies that could be particular beneficiaries of a Trump administration include US exploration and production groups that might want to drill on federal land that he has pledged to make available for oil and gas production.


Harold Hamm, the billionaire chief executive and majority owner of Continental Resources, one of the leading US shale oil producers, has been one of Mr Trump's top advisers on the sector and has been tipped as a possible energy secretary.
Another company that stands to gain is TransCanada, the company that sought to build the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to the US, which was rejected by Mr Obama in 2015. Mr Trump has said he would invite TransCanada to resubmit an application for the project.
His administration could also curb global oil supply. Mr Trump has strongly criticised the deal between major powers and Iran last year over its nuclear programme that has allowed the country to increase its oil exports.

Carmakers: loser



Carmakers face significant uncertainty as the election of Mr Trump raises new questions over the health of the US automobile market, as well as potential consequences for companies that manufacture in Mexico, write Peter Campbell in Lisbon and Kana Inagaki in Tokyo.
After several years of strong sales, car purchases are falling in the US, but carmakers face the prospect of an accelerating decline if Mr Trump's victory leads to an economic slowdown. General Motors on Wednesday announced plans to lay off 2,000 workers at two US plants, blaming fluctuating consumer demand.


Many carmakers have factories in Mexico, where labour costs are lower than in the US, and companies with operations there also benefit from the country's extensive free-trade agreements. But the role of these is in doubt, as Mr Trump's campaign announcements have included building a wall along the US-Mexican border, and renegotiating or withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada.
A senior GM executive on Wednesday defended the company's use of Mexican plants, suggesting it would not yield to pressure to relocate manufacturing jobs to the US.
Johan de Nysschen, president of Cadillac, a GM unit, said the company had done "contingency planning" in case Mr Trump won, but suggested moving work to the US would be uncompetitive.
Mr Trump has already criticised Ford for promising to move production of its small cars from the US to Mexico over the next three years.
However, Japanese carmakers are expected to be among the hardest hit by the Trump victory as US currency headwinds will make it virtually impossible for them to offset the strong yen impact with cost cuts.
Stuart Pearson, auto analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, said: "At this stage we think the main fundamental impact [for carmakers] for the coming months will be pricing in changes to foreign exchange rates. 

Renewables: loser


© FT Graphic / Bloomberg

Wind power is "so expensive" and it "kills all your birds", while the payback for solar power is too long, Mr Trump said on the campaign trail, writes Richard Milne, Nordic Correspondent.
This anti-renewables rhetoric from the president-elect, combined with his hostility to the Paris accord to tackle climate change, led to big share price falls among wind and solar companies on Wednesday.
Shares in Vestas, the Danish company that is the world's second-largest wind turbine maker, fell an additional 10 per cent after they had dropped 4 per cent the day before because of worries about its US business.
Marika Fredriksson, Vestas's finance director, told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the company was reassured by a five-year extension to wind subsidies in the US but conceded that Mr Trump's comments had been negative.


Other companies were hit, too, with Gamesa of Spain down 4 per cent. Germany's Siemens, which is planning to merge its wind turbine business with Gamesa, closed up almost 2 per cent.
The fallout even affected companies with little business in the US, such as Dong Energy, the Danish group that is the world's leading operator of offshore wind farms, mostly in the North Sea. Its shares fell by 2.5 per cent.
Mr Trump's statements on solar have been kinder — he even said "I love solar" recently — but he has questioned the economic sense of something with a payback of more than a decade.
Shares in US solar companies fell. First Solar and SolarCity, the group chaired by Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, were both down by at least 5 per cent in late Wednesday morning trading in New York, while the stock of SunPower, a listed subsidiary of French energy company Total, plunged 15 per cent.

Infrastructure: winner



Suppliers to the construction industry will be hoping that Mr Trump's pledge to renew creaking US infrastructure translates into orders, write Michael Pooler and Henry Sanderson in London.
"We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals," the president-elect said in his acceptance speech.
Although analysts said that Mr Trump's plans, which involve granting $137bn of tax credits to construction companies to leverage $1tn of investment, have been short on detail, some companies' shares rose in anticipation of a spending boom.
Shares in Glencore and Antofagasta, which both mine copper for use in the construction industry, increased by almost 7 and 9 per cent, respectively, on Wednesday.
"Infrastructure investment in the US is likely to increase, which bodes well for copper and other mined commodities," said Christopher LaFemina, mining analyst at Jefferies.
Germany's HeidelbergCement said that it saw benefits in the medium term from Mr Trump's infrastructure pledges after a period of uncertainty that would delay investment decisions.
Meanwhile, shares in CRH, the Irish buildings materials group that produces concrete and asphalt and has significant sales in the US, rose more than 8 per cent.
Shares in Ashtead, the UK company that rents out construction equipment, and which derives about 90 per cent of its operating profit through its US arm, increased 12 per cent.
The possibility of protectionist trade measures under Mr Trump is also likely to lift investor sentiment towards US steelmakers, which have been struggling amid a global supply glut partly blamed on excess production by Chinese competitors.

Airlines & shipping: mixed



Sir Tim Clark, chief executive of Emirates Airline, the fast-growing Dubai-based airline, on Monday spoke for many in the international transport industry when he expressed the hope that Mr Trump's election rhetoric would prove to be largely "bluster", writes Robert Wright in London.
However, Sir Tim went on to outline a series of dangers facing global travel and trade that will be taken far more seriously after Mr Trump's victory.
For airlines, they include the risk that the liberalisation of aviation through inter-governmental Open Skies agreements, which has underpinned growth in long-haul flying, could go into reverse.
Mr Trump may listen more than President Obama to a complaint by US airlines about alleged unfair competition from Emirates and the Gulf's other two big state-controlled carriers, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways.
Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines last year urged the US authorities to rescind or renegotiate aspects of the open skies agreements that the country has with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Meanwhile, in shipping, Mr Trump's victory could hit trading conditions for container lines that are already the most severe in the sector's 60-year history.
Erik Stavseth, analyst at Arctic Securities, highlighted how 15 per cent of exports from Asian countries excluding Japan were destined for the US. Those look likely to suffer if Mr Trump, as he has promised, raises tariffs on imports. "Container liners will inevitably see a diminishing development in trade," he said.
Shares in European and Japanese container lines, including AP Moller Maersk and NYK Line, fell on Wednesday.

Defence: winner



Mr Trump's presidency should be a boon for the defence sector if he carries out his promise to end years of political stalemate over a long-term defence budget and boost military spending on a new fleet of warships and squadrons of fighter aircraft, writes Peggy Hollinger in London.
After serial spending caps while US lawmakers argued over where budget cuts should fall under the Obama administration, Mr Trump has promised that defence programmes will be adequately funded and older equipment replaced.
This will be good news for the likes of Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, key contractors on big US programmes.
"We might see the US defence budget take on a normal appearance, with what is really core being in the base budget," said Sandy Morris, defence analyst at Jefferies. "That would be a big step forward in allowing the Department of Defense plan for the long term, something it has long called for."
With the Republicans in control of Congress, there was a "realistic prospect" of legislation that would end the spending caps, he added. "All in all, a better backdrop for all defence suppliers appears likely."
However, other analysts suggested that Mr Trump's emphasis on using US industry to create more US jobs could threaten some key international partnerships.
BAE Systems, the UK defence company, is the largest supplier to the new generation joint strike fighter, the F-35. "Will Trump 'renege' on defence co-operation, for example on the [joint strike fighter], to bring jobs home?" asked Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Analysis.

Banks: mixed



Financials were initially one of the hardest hit sectors of the market when news of Mr Trump's likely election victory started to appear on traders' screens early on Wednesday. But within hours, investors' anxiety faded about the sector's immediate prospects under a Trump presidency and many bank shares made it into positive territory.
Shares in Credit Suisse, Barclays, Deutsche and BNP all rose more than 3 per cent. Even Italy's UniCredit, which is widely seen as needing to raise capital, was up slightly.
The performance of the big US banks was even stronger as hopes emerged of lighter touch regulation in future. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo all rose between 3 and 5 per cent.
But not all banks benefited from the rally. Natixis, the French bank, said that it expected the Trump victory to hit investment banking revenues in the short term, as transactions are likely to be postponed. But it added that the volatility caused by the election result should attract more money into actively managed funds. Natixis shares fell more than 3 per cent.
The biggest loser among big European banks was Spain's BBVA, as analysts identified its reliance on Mexico for about half its profits as a significant vulnerability after Mr Trump's anti-Mexican rhetoric featured prominently in the campaign.
After the Mexican peso fell as much as 12 per cent against the US dollar, Citigroup analysts downgraded BBVA to a sell rating. Shares in BBVA were down 5.7 per cent in late trading, wiping €2.4bn off its market capitalisation. Shares in Spain's Banco Santander, which also has a large Mexican operation, were down only slightly.


Analysts at Berenberg said predictions that global economic growth would be hit, postponing an expected rise in US interest rates, were bad news for the banks. They said the heavily leveraged banks would face most downward pressure on share prices, listing Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and French banks in particular.
However, some bank bosses were more upbeat. Carlo Messina, chief executive of Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo, told the Financial Times that his country could benefit from improved trade with Russia if Mr Trump achieves his goal of improving relations with Russian president Vladimir Putin. "We could move to a more pragmatic relationship with Putin and Italy has a very large export relationship with Russia," he said.
Analysts at Bernstein noted that Mr Trump's victory could trigger a hit to the US economy, which would have an impact on European banks with domestic US businesses and would also hit investment banks. "This will also likely take a rate rise off the table for December or anytime soon (HSBC and Standard Chartered to be hit the most)," the analysts added. "Then come asset markets and a risk off trade — that will hurt the private banks (UBS and Credit Suisse) the most."
"We would anticipate that currency moves in the coming days will be a significant focus for the market," an analyst from Barclays wrote. "This is most likely to impact banks with a sizeable dollar earnings and banks with exposure to Mexico." They named HSBC, Société Générale, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas as banks with large US exposures. Barclays itself also has a big US investment bank.

Insurers: mixed



Rising bond yields and hopes of a less onerous regulatory regime also pushed up shares in US life insurers, write Alistair Gray in New York and Oliver Ralph in London.
Analysts highlighted that a crackdown on fees and commissions on retirement products planned by the Obama administration may now be delayed, watered down or even scrapped.
Insurers, as well as brokers and asset managers, had lobbied against the changes, which President Obama battled to push through before he left office. The reforms would subject the pensions industry to a new " fiduciary standard", designed to remove hidden charges and conflicts of interest. The new rule, from the Department of Labor, was due to take effect in April next year.
"Following the election results, there is a good chance, in our view, that the rule would not go into effect in April 2017," wrote Randy Binner, analyst at FBR Capital Markets, in a note.
He also highlighted that the authorities may take a more relaxed line on regulations that govern non-bank systemically important financial institutions (Sifi).
By midday in New York, MetLife, which is fighting its Sifi designation in the courts, was up 6.7 per cent and Prudential Financial 5.2 per cent.
The markets backdrop may also improve for insurers. Share prices in the sector are strongly correlated to long-term interest rates. Valuations have been dented since the financial crisis as low bond yields have hurt the industry's fixed-income dominated investment portfolios.
The election has raised doubts about the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy. Expectations rose on Wednesday that the President would apply more protectionist trade measures, weakening the dollar and leading to stronger inflation. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note touched the highest level since March in response.


Outsourcers: winner



Companies that operate private prisons have received a boost from Mr Trump's success, with shares in GEO Group and Corrections Corp of America making double digit gains on Wednesday morning, writes Jessica Dye in New York.
Both companies suffered share price falls in August after the US Department of Justice announced that it would begin to phase out the use of private contractors to operate federal prisoners. At their peak in 2013, private prisons housed approximately 15 per cent of the US's federal prison population, or nearly 30,000 out of 22,000.
But, as US prison populations began to decline, the DOJ said that it hoped to shift away from, and ultimately end, its use of private populations and instead focus resources on improving the safety and quality of rehabilitative services at its own prisons.
Whether or not that policy will be carried forward by the next president remains to be seen. Mr Trump said during a town-hall meeting hosted by MSNBC's Chris Matthews in March, before the DOJ policy was announced, that "I do think we can do a lot of privatisation and private prisons. It seems to work a lot better."
With the White House changing hands, investors appear to sense that Mr Trump could roll back the policy. Shares in GEO Group were up 20 per cent in early trading in Wednesday, while Corrections Corp of America shares soared 45 per cent.

Telecoms & media: loser



Concerns have increased over the future of AT&T's $85bn bid for Time Warner, given the president-elect's commitment to block the deal last month, writes Nic Fildes in London.
European telecoms companies with US exposure may also be exposed to the dollar exchange rate, including Altice, Inmarsat and Deutsche Telekom, which owns T-Mobile USA. In addition, Telefónica's large Latin American footprint, including 2 per cent operating income exposure to Mexico, pushed its shares down 1.3 per cent given Mr Trump's anti-Mexico stance.
However, the outlook for other European telcos' shares is better. Citi analysts argued that the "defensive virtues" of the likes of Orange, Swisscom and KPN should come to the fore as healthy dividend yields prove attractive. But it added that BT's pension fund remained at risk to a possible tightening of government bond yields.
US telecoms stocks fared better. Sprint's shares rose almost 12 per cent and T-Mobile climbed more than 3 per cent on hopes of lighter regulation.

Retail and consumer: mixed



Investors in consumer groups have been reacting to the potential impact of Mr Trump's policies on their costs, trade agreements and supply chain, write Scheherazade Daneshkhu in London and Lindsay Whipp in Chicago.
In Europe, ingredients maker Tate & Lyle's reliance on Mexico for 10 per cent of its earnings and on the dollar for another 80 per cent, led to a 12 per cent fall in its share price on news of Mr Trump's win. It has a large US-based business making corn fructose sweeteners for soft drinks.
If Mr Trump scraps the North American Free Trade Agreement it "could destroy the cross-border trade between the US and Mexico in high fructose corn syrup, which represents 12 per cent of US HFCS production", a Jefferies analyst said.
Mr Trump's win is also likely to prompt uncertainty for many consumer groups in the US, just as shoppers prepare to splash out for the holiday season.
While any tax cuts at home could help some households, anti-immigration and trade policies could have a bigger and more damaging impact, according to analysts.
Neil Saunders, an analyst at Conlumino, said: "Trump's policies could be quite far-reaching for retail, especially in terms of the labour market becoming more restricted and products becoming more expensive if import taxes are introduced. The latter is a major issue given how interconnected supply chains are."
Mr Trump has already criticised Mondelez International, which makes Oreos, for shifting some of its production to Mexico.
Research provider Euromonitor predicted that a Trump presidency could create an economic slowdown that would hurt retail sales of discretionary items, such as confectionery and men's shaving products. It also warned that the $1.4tn travel and tourism industry could be hurt if fewer Mexicans and Muslims visit.
PepsiCo's shares were down 2.2 per cent in mid-morning trading to $106.33, while Procter & Gamble's fell 1.8 per cent to $88.90. Mondelez International shares declined 3.3 per cent to $44.5.

(12) Hillary Clinton failed to win over black, Hispanic and female voters - the charts that show why she lost the presidential election




Hillary Clinton failed to win over black, Hispanic and female voters - the charts that show why she lost the presidential election

Voting in America is over. Donald Trump has emerged victorious over Hillary Clinton and will become the 45th President of the USA. 
Early signs as to how this unexpected result occurred can be seen in demographic exit poll data, with Clinton doing worse than expected among women, Hispanic voters and African Americans.
By comparing Clinton's performance to Obama's in 2012 it is easy to see that she failed to appeal to a number of key voter groups. Groups that it was predicted she would have more support from.

Women didn't back Hillary

Donald Trump's problems with women have been well documented in the media. He has consistently made derogatory remarks against women, calling some "dogs" and "slobs".
At the beginning of October a tape of Trump apparently celebrating sexual assault in a conversation with Billy Bush was released. It led to a series of allegations against Trump as women came forward to speak out, causing his polling numbers to slump.
This was thought to have helped drive women to vote for Clinton, with some polls showing a double-figure divide between men and women's support for the presidential candidates.
'I don't want her brand of feminism': Trump voter on Clinton Play! 01:22
Although last night's exit polls do show that 54 per cent of women backed Clinton compared to 42 per cent for Trump, these numbers were not significantly different from how women voted in 2012.
In the 2012 presidential race, 55 per cent of women backed Obama while 44 per cent backed Romney.
Despite all the headlines surrounding Trump, it seems that women didn't feel they could get behind Hillary Clinton.

Clinton had less support from the young

In 2012, a majority of over-50s backed Romney for the presidency, while Obama got the support of three in five of those aged under 30.
In 2016, polling was showing that Trump's support among older sections of society had improved on Romney's figure - with 49 per cent of over-65s supporting him, compared to 29 per cent of 18 to 39-year-olds.
This was hugely positive for Trump in the key swing state of Florida. Worth 29 electoral college votes, Florida's high over-65 population was expected to back the Republican candidate leaving Clinton in need of a solid turnout among younger voters if she was to win the state.
However, the exit polls showed that Clinton's popularity among younger voters was much lower than Obama's.
Of those voters aged under 30 years of age, only 55 per cent backed Clinton compared to Obama's 60 per cent in 2012.
This might have proved enough to swing Florida towards Trump and it could also be a factor behind his victory in Pennsylvania - something which there was less expectation of.

Trump gained support among Hispanic and African American voters

The attraction of voting for America's first black president in 2008 and 2012 led to large proportion of minority ethnic groups backing Obama for the presidency.
Polling figures showed that ethnic minorities still looked set to support the Democrat candidate this time round with some polls showing that just 17 per cent of Hispanics and three per cent of African Americans supported Trump.
Trump's comments about Mexicans having "lots of problems", "bringing drugs" and being "rapists" were also thought to have done little to garner the support of Hispanic communities.
This was meant to have a lot of significance in the campaign, with Hispanics accounting for more than a fifth of the population in four key swing states including Florida.
Again, things didn't go as well for Clinton as she would have hoped. Exit polls show that Clinton's support among Hispanic voters was just 65 per cent, down from Obama's 71 per cent in 2012 while among black voters support was down from 93 per cent to 88 per cent.
Meanwhile support among Hispanic voters was actually higher for Trump, at 29 per cent, compared to the 27 per cent Romney secured four years ago.

Rural, white America backed Trump emphatically

The exit polling from last night's election also reveals that the divide between rural and urban communities in America has widened since 2012.
Traditionally people in urban areas, such as cities, are far more likely to vote for Democrat candidates, while those in small towns and sparsely populated areas are far more likely to vote Republican.
White voters backed Trump - Highcharts CloudWhite voters backed TrumpVote share broken down into four even groups of counties with ascendingproportions of white votersVote share broken down into four even groups of counties with ascending proportions of white votersClintonTrumpFewest whitesFewer whitesMore whitesMost whites0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Four years ago 50 per cent of those in small cities and rural areas voted for Romney while Obama did well on 48 per cent.
It would seem that Trump was extremely successful in appealing to these voters with 62 per cent supporting him in his presidential bid - a double-digit percentage point increase.
Similarly, Clinton performed significantly worse than Obama did among those at the lower end of the pay scale with 52 per cent of those earning less than $50,000 voting for her compared to 60 per cent for Obama.

(11) Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán celebrates Donald Trump victory as end of ‘liberal non-democracy’ | The Independent




Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán celebrates Donald Trump victory as end of 'liberal non-democracy'

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has heralded Donald Trump's shock election victory as the end of "liberal non-democracy". 
Mr Orbán, who was a vocal supporter of the Trump campaign, said the Republican win would allow Western civilisation to "break free from the confines of an ideology". 
He also claimed Mr Trump's election was akin to the Brexit vote, representing a global change in popular thinking. 
It was an "historic event, in which Western civilisation appears to successfully break free from the confines of an ideology", Mr Orbán told the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development conference. 
"We are living in the days where what we call liberal non-democracy, in which we lived for the past 20 years, ends, and we can return to real democracy."
Mr Orbán's political climb has not been dissimilar to President-elect Trump's and the former billionaire investor turned politician has been widely criticised for his rejection of globalisation and inciting xenophobia in the country. 


In July, he labelled migrants a "poison" for Europe and claimed the bloc did not need "a single one". 
He also called Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton's foreign policy "deadly" for Hungary, while supporting heavily Mr Trump's anti-immigration stance as "vital" for Budapest. 
"We can call problems by their name and find solutions not derived from an ideology but based on pragmatic, creative-thinking rooted in common sense," Mr Orbán said following the US election result. 
He said despite "the big bang", everyone was "still alive".
"What a wonderful world. This also shows that democracy is creative and innovative," Mr Orban said.
In October, he called a referendum which asked citizens whether they wished to disregard European Union quotas for resettling migrants. 
Voters supported the government's opposition to the mandatory acceptance of a certain number of asylum seekers; however, the ballot was invalidated due to low voter turnout.
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(10) Trump Putin alliance sparks diplomatic crisis




Trump Putin alliance sparks diplomatic crisis


Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump

Britain is facing a diplomatic crisis with the US over Donald Trump's plans to forge an alliance with Vladimir Putin and bolster the Syrian regime.
In a significant foreign policy split, officials admitted that Britain will have some "very difficult" conversations with the President-elect in coming months over his approach to Russia.
It comes after Mr Trump used his first interviews since winning the US election to indicate that he will withdraw support for rebels in Syria and thank Vladimir Putin for sending him a "beautiful" letter.
Mr Trump said that he will instead join forces with Russia and focus on defeating Isil. He has previously said it would be "nice" if the US and Russia could work together to "knock the hell out of Isil".
Putin congratulates Trump on US election victory Play! 01:07
His views are in stark contrast with those of Theresa May, who has accused President Assad's regime of perpetrating "atrocious violence" and said that the long-term future of Syria must be "without Assad".
Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, has accused Russia of perpetrating war crimes over the deaths of hundreds of civilians.
The dramatic shift in US policy has prompted significant concern in the Foreign Office, and Britain will use the next three months before Mr Trump enters the White House to try to convince him of the importance of removing President Assad.
Mr Johnson is expected to fly to the US within weeks to meet with senior figures in Mr Trump's administration and make clear that Britain believes that Mr Assad must go.
The diplomatic tensions emerged as a flotilla of Russian warships which passed through the English Channel has now arrived off the coast of Syria ahead of a major offensive against Isil.
In other developments:  
  • Sir Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, warned that European members of Nato have become "too dependent" on the support of the US after Mr Trump accused them of failing to pull their weight.
  • Mrs May will on Monday highlight the importance of globalisation to international security in an ever-changing World. She will also compare the US election to Brexit and say that that the West must recognise the concerns of people who have "seen their communities changed" by migration.
  • Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, met with members of Donald Trump's inner circle at Trump Tower in New York after saying Theresa May must "mend fences" with the President Elect.
  • Marie Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right Front National, praised President Putin for "defending the interests of his own country" as she criticised US and European aggression towards Russia.
  • Mr Johnson boycotted a "crisis" meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels to discuss how Europe will deal with the aftermath of the US election.
  • Mr Trump said on Twitter yesterday: "This will prove to be a great time in the lives of all Americans. We will unite and we will win, win, win!"
In his first interview Mr Trump told the Wall Street Journal that his administration will prioritise defeating Isil in Syria rather than removing President Assad.
He told the Wall Street Journal: "I've had an opposite view of many people regarding Syria. My attitude was you're fighting Syria, Syria is fighting ISIS, and you have to get rid of ISIS.
"Russia is now totally aligned with Syria, and now you have Iran, which is becoming powerful, because of us, is aligned with Syria. Now we're backing rebels against Syria, and we have no idea who these people are."
He added that if the US attacks President Assad's regime "we end up fighting Russia".
The Sunday Telegraph understands that Britain will spend the next two months trying to convince Mr Trump's team of the need to remove President Assad. The issue will be the "number one" priority.
The Government had hoped that Mr Trump would be prepared to soften his stance on the issue after winning the election, as he has with several other flagship plans including his pledge to repeal Obamacare. However his interview signalled that he will pursue the alliance with Russia.
Foreign Office officials believe that it will be "incredibly difficult" but emphasised that Britain will not change its position.
"We have been very clear that Assad has no place in the future of Syria," the official said. "He has the blood of 400,000 people on his hands."
Another Foreign Office source said that there is hope that Mr Trump will be forced to change his position when he deals with Mr Putin directly.
"There is no doubt that he looks upon Putin as a person who he thinks he can do business with," the source said. "When he discovers that Putin is not a rational or reasonable guy he might change his mind. This will take time to settle down."
It came as Vladimir Putin urged Donald Trump to encourage Nato to withdraw its forces from Russia's borders as part of a bid to improve relations.
Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin's official spokesman, said in an interview with The Associated Press that Russia now sees "NATO's muscles getting bigger and bigger and closer and closer to Russian borders." He said that as a "confidence-building measure" between the US and Russia Mr Trump could help relations between the US and Russia by "slowing down" or "withdrawing" Nato's military presence entirely from its borders.
There are also mounting concerns over the future of Nato after Mr Trump suggested that the US may withdraw support from the organisation because European members are failing to "pay their bills".


Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin hold 'blunt' meeting at G20 Credit: AFP
During a visit to Norway Sir Michael Fallon agreed that the levels of expenditure by EU countries is "not good enough".
Defence spending by European members has fallen from 1.7 per cent of national income to 1.4 percent on average. Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain all spent less than one per cent last year.
It came as four Americans were killed yesterday in a suicide bombing inside the largest US military base in Afghanistan, The Taliban claimed responsibility for the bombing inside the heavily fortified Bagram Airfield, north of the capital Kabul, which left 16 other US service members and a Polish soldier wounded.
The assault highlights rising insecurity in Afghanistan nearly two years after US-led Nato forces formally ended their combat operations.
Sir Michael said: "When we go out of the EU, only 20 per cent of the Nato budget be paid by EU countries. That's not good enough. Therefore, we ask that rich European countries spend more on defence."
The Prime Minister will on Monday evening say in an address at Mansion House in London that Brexit and Mr Trump's election shows that "change is in the air".
She will say: "A year ago, few among us would have predicted the events ahead.  A clear, determined decision to leave the European Union and forge a bold, new, confident future for ourselves in the world. And, of course, a new President-elect in the US who defied the polls and the pundits all the way up to election day itself."
While defending globalisation she will say that Britain and the West must recognise the concerns of those who feel left behind. 
Nigel Farage: this result looks 'bigger than Brexit' Play! 01:17
She will say: "These people – often those on modest to low incomes living in rich countries like our own – see their jobs being outsourced and wages undercut. They see their communities changing around them and don't remember giving their permission for that to be the case."
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, hopes that he can act as a "bridge" between Britain and Mr Trump and help to address concerns about the future of Nato.
He told Fox News:  "Mrs May's team have been quite rude about Trump. There are some fences to be mended. He's got to meet her. We can have a sensible trade relationship, cut tariffs, we're massive investors in each other countries, we've got a bright future."
Ms Pen told the Andrew Marr Show on BBC One that US and European aggression have provoked Russia. She also suggested Mr Trump's victory increases her chances of becoming President because of her patriotism.
Ms Le Pen said: "The model that is defended by Vladimir Putin, which is one of reasoned protectionism, looking after the interests of his own country, defending his identity, is one that I like, as long as I can defend this model in my own country."