(29) Failure to ratify the TPP will require Washington to rethink its strategy in Asia - Global Times

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Failure to ratify the TPP will require Washington to rethink its strategy in Asia

The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement is doomed to fail because of the antipathy of the American public against free trade, ensuring Washington can no longer exert its leadership in Asia.

US President Barack Obama is expected to make every effort to persuade Congress to approve the TPP - the ratification of which would be considered one of his greatest accomplishments. However, it seems almost impossible that those efforts will be rewarded.

The TPP was given great strategic importance when the US joined negotiations in 2009. To an extent, it has been seen as an opportunity for Washington to draw together an inner circle of allies to balance China's rising economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

In past decades, some countries in the region have gained huge benefits from signing free trade agreements (FTA) or friendship treaties with the US. Such nations enjoy priority in entering the American market and stand in a favorable position for attracting investment from the US, which constitutes the foundation of the US' dominant economic influence in the region.

Some of the TPP member countries already boast bilateral or multilateral FTAs with the US that predate TPP negotiations. Realistically, the US will have to make more promises and offer more benefits to those countries if Washington wants to persuade them to ratify the TPP. It seems Obama is willing to play ball in a bid to maintain the US' influence, but Congress is not necessarily on board. Members of Congress each represent smaller constituencies, some of which have no affection for free trade or any interest in maintaining US influence in Asia if it means they will lose their jobs to trade liberalization.

It seems Obama is unlikely to obtain congressional support for the agreement before his term ends. Given that both US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have voiced their opposition to the deal, the partnership is likely to disappear from the scene after Obama leaves the White House.

Now TPP member countries have to dwell on how they will face the failure of the deal and Washington will need to rethink its strategy in Asia. Following comments from the Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong that failure by the US Congress to ratify the TPP would diminish the US' standing among Asian trade partners, Washington is in urgent need to reassure its economic partners in the region. Asian countries, especially Singapore, Vietnam and Japan who maintain a close economic relationship with the US should prepare if Washington's moves to further reduce its strategic inputs in Asia in order to maintain its economic influence.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn