(28) Weathering Anti-Ship Attacks in Bab el-Mandeb | Stratfor

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Weathering Anti-Ship Attacks in Bab el-Mandeb

November 14, 2016 | 19:41 GMT

Shipping companies should be concerned by militant attacks, especially those emanating from Yemen. Militants are often less deterred by the standard counterpiracy measures ships typically rely on, including accelerating, changing course, blocking pirates from reaching the deck and employing armed guards. These tactics are meant to prevent thieves from boarding a ship and taking control of it; they are less effective in thwarting attacks meant to damage or destroy a ship. Armed guards can do little against anti-ship missiles or small boats laden with explosives, and regional naval patrols cannot respond quickly enough to stop such attacks. Moreover, the European Union's NAVFOR Somalia mandate will be up at the end of the year, and it is unclear whether it will be extended. However, one thing is certain: If the threat in the Bab el-Mandeb shifts from piracy to militancy, shipping companies will have to rethink their safety protocols.

In the heyday of Somali piracy, from 2009 to 2011, international naval patrols organized convoys to escort ships through the most dangerous areas, raising awareness of potentially hostile craft and decreasing response times. It is possible that convoys could likewise mitigate the risk posed by militants. Of course, timing would be crucial: Whereas pirate attacks take place over the course of several minutes as vessels approach the targeted ship, board it and gain control of it, incoming anti-ship missiles and explosives-laden speedboats require a much more rapid response. Moreover, though the tanker ships hauling crude oil and liquefied natural gas are double-hulled and can withstand the small arms and RPG attacks traditionally favored by Somali pirates, they are less able to weather heavier explosives such as anti-ship missiles or explosives-laden skiffs. The chances of more attacks occurring in the months ahead are high. If allowed to continue, Yemeni militants will eventually hit a tanker carrying LNG or crude, causing a shock to international shippers that rely on the Bab el-Mandeb, as well as to the energy markets they service.  

Mitigating the piracy and militant maritime threats will come down to control over land. Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia were able to wipe out piracy in the Strait of Malacca by overrunning pirates' onshore bases. One of the reasons Somali pirates have been able to operate for so long is that they can act with impunity along Somalia's ungoverned coastline. Similarly, Yemen's civil war has created an environment more akin to Somalia's lawlessness than to the sovereign control along the Strait of Malacca. With the type of attacks coming from Yemen more potent, the security measures shipping companies have long relied on will no longer work as well as they once did.