Global order rests on the US-China relationship
With much fanfare President Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping to his Florida retreat for face-to-face meetings a few weeks ago. According to press accounts, Trump was eager to press Beijing to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions and martial spirit.But there was more there than meets the eye. For one thing, the Trump delegation arrived later than Xi, a breach of diplomatic protocol. Was the occupant of the White House sending a message? And second, sometime between salad and entrée, Trump let on that he is attacking Syria with 59 Tomahawks, the same Bashar al-Assad government China supports. It has not been reported whether Xi had indigestion.The Trump team seemingly ushered in a new stance towards China. For decades, policy analysts in both parties contended that integrating China into the global economic, diplomatic and securities architecture would ultimately serve the interests of the West and yield stability across the globe. But this hypothesis has not been borne out by the evidence.
Since 2008, China has embraced protectionism in defiance of trade agreements. It has boosted state owned enterprises to the detriment of foreign owned firms. And it has extorted intellectual property for Chinese entities as the price for participation in Chinese markets.On the foreign policy front, China has asserted its territorial and maritime claims with a unilaterally generated air perimeter zone, one that was drawn in a coercive and hostile manner. It has increased its support for North Korea and rejected United Nations actions against its dubious ally. Yet despite, these actions and many others, there persists the belief U.S. and China can establish a modus vivendi. Based on recent assertions and a Chinese willingness to assist in restraining the North Korean nuclear program, a new level of understanding may be emerging. Washington does have its skeptics.First among them are those who maintain that the initial overtures to China during the Nixon years no longer apply. China's role as a counterweight to Soviet ambitions in the Cold War is an anachronistic judgment. Second, ambitious Chinese plan for its international Silk Road have created a rivalry that is not likely to evanesce.A fundamental Chinese belief in its extended geographic periphery runs headlong into U.S. hegemony in the Pacific. For China to prevail, it seems likely it will have to delegitimize U.S. alliances in Asia.If one accepts this proposition, a reorientation of U.S. policy towards China is warranted. That, of course, is the Trump challenge. Will China continue to be welcome in the community of nations or will her raw ambition militate against cooperation? Will Trump be capable of balancing ties to China with U.S. interests in Asia?President Trump warned that the Mar-a-Lago summit would be difficult. Yet it has also awakened a new level of understanding. Where this will lead is anyone's guess. Will China raise the ante in its long march to world trade domination? Will the Trump administration develop a strategy for Chinese containment without the risk of war? The questions are cascading out of the White House and into Foggy Bottom.For Americans, keen analysts realize the role that China plays — conciliatory or hostile — will determine the fate of mankind.Herbert London is president of the London Center for Policy Research.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.
¡Qué se lo piensen dos veces antes de usar armas nucleares! La advertencia de Rusia a EEUU
El presidente adjunto del Comité para la Defensa y Seguridad del Consejo de la Federación de Rusia —Cámara Alta del Parlamento—, Frants Klintsévich, se pronunció en su cuenta de Facebook luego de que el teniente general de las Fuerzas Armadas de Rusia, Víctor Poznijir, declarara que el sistema de defensa antiaérea de EEUU está creando la posibilidad de un ataque nuclear repentino contra Rusia.
"Los representantes de Rusia siempre han exhortado a la parte estadounidense a que entienda el peligro que su sistema de misiles representa para el balance de fuerzas en el mundo. No obstante, esto es ignorado. Aunque Washington sostiene que su sistema antiaéreo no está dirigido contra Rusia y China, las simulaciones por ordenador dicen lo contrario", enfatizó el general.A este respecto, el senador ruso consideró que las declaraciones del general han sido dirigidas contra ciertos sectores en concreto."El primer destinatario es la comunidad mundial. Por otra parte, envía una señal clara a la Administración de EEUU, de que sin importar qué rumbo tomen las cosas, nada nos sorprenderá", escribió el político.
Asimismo, subrayó que ahora la garantía más fiable para asegurar la paz es "nuestra capacidad de responder de manera más fuerte a una posible agresión"."Precisamente a eso, de acuerdo con mi punto de vista, se refirió en su discurso el representante del Estado Mayor ruso, el teniente general Víctor Pozhijir. Finalmente, el principal destinatario son los propios ciudadanos rusos. No tienen nada que temer, la situación está bajo control", escribió.Para comentar el tema, el experto de la Academia de Ciencias de Rusia, Víctor Olénchenko, sostuvo en una entrevista con Sputnik que las últimas declaraciones del general estuvieron motivadas a "la alarmante escalada de violencia en la retórica de los militares estadounidenses y sus aliados de la OTAN".Anteriormente, Frants Klintsévich exhortó a Moscú a responder de manera categórica a las palabras del secretario de Defensa del Reino Unido, Michael Fallon, quien declaró que Theresa May estaba lista para utilizar armas nucleares contra cualquier país, en caso de que se den "las circunstancias más extraordinarias".Busca en Facebook a SputnikMundo y descubre las noticias más importantes. Dale a "me gusta" y compártelo con tus amigos. Ayúdanos a contar lo que otros callan.
Chinese FM stresses two directions in dealing with nuclear issue on Korean Peninsula
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said here Friday that two directions must be stuck to while dealing with the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.
"We must stay committed to the goal of denuclearization," Wang said while addressing the UN Security Council Ministerial Meeting on Non-proliferation and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
"All parties should comprehensively understand and fully implement DPRK-related Security Council resolutions," he said.
"Denuclearization is the basic precondition for long-term peace and stability on the Peninsula and what we must accomplish to safeguard the international nuclear non-proliferation regime," Wang said.
The Security Council held a special meeting on Friday to discuss the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres briefed the meeting, which was chaired by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, as the United States holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council this month.
Wang and foreign ministers or vice foreign ministers of Britain, Russia, Senegal and Japan, attended the meeting.
"The continued escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the recent period has caused widespread concerns and worries of the international community," said Wang.
"If the issue of the Peninsula fails to be put under effective control and in the case of unexpected events, the situation is highly likely to take a drastic turn for the worse and spiral out of control," he added.
All the 15 members of the Security Council addressed the meeting focusing on the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and the implementation of relevant UN resolutions.
Wang said,"We must stay committed to the path of dialogue and negotiation."
"The use of force does not resolve differences, and will only lead to bigger disasters," he noted, adding that "as the only way out, dialogue and negotiation also represent the sensible choice for all parties."
"Our past experience of resolving the nuclear issue on the peninsula shows, whenever dialogue and negotiation were ongoing, the situation on the peninsula would maintain basic stability and efforts toward denuclearization could make progress," said the minister.
He recalled the period between 2003 and 2007 when the parties were engaged in dialogue and negotiation, and three joint documents were adopted.
"In particular, the September 19th Joint Statement in 2005 set out the roadmap for the DPRK's abandonment of all nuclear programs and the realization of peace on the peninsula," he said.
"Even today, the Joint Statement still carries major positive significance, and has been reaffirmed and acknowledged by all DPRK-related resolutions of the Security Council," Wang said.
On Saturday, the DPRK test-fired a ballistic missile, which exploded shortly after liftoff, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.
The country conducted a hydrogen bomb test and a nuclear warhead explosion test on Jan. 6 and Sept. 9 in 2016, respectively. The Security Council adopted resolutions on March 2 and Nov. 30 of 2016, respectively, demanding the DPRK abandon its nuclear weapon and missile programs and imposing sanctions on it.
South Korea Rejects Trump's $1B THAAD Demand
By Brian Padden April 28, 2017The South Korean government has quickly refuted U.S. President Donald Trump's call for Seoul to pay $1 billion for the THAAD missile defense system.The Defense Ministry put out a statement Friday saying, "There is no change in South Korea and the United States' position that our government provides the land and supporting facilities and the U.S. bears the cost of THAAD system's deployment, operation and maintenance."The deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile battery was agreed to last year by the administrations of then U.S. President Barack Obama and then South Korean President Park Geun-hye. Park was able to evade demands that she seek National Assembly approval for the deal by claiming no additional funding would be required for the THAAD deployment.But during an interview Thursday with Reuters in Washington, President Trump said he wants South Korea to pay for the system.A former U.S. State Department official estimated the cost of the system at $1.2 billion, but said the United States would not want to sell THAAD to Seoul.Trump also said in the Oval Office interview he wants to resolve the crisis peacefully, possibly through the use of new economic sanctions, but added, "There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea."China has told Washington it has warned Pyongyang of new Chinese sanctions if it conducts another nuclear test, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in a Fox News interview Thursday . That would be a departure for Beijing, which has until now been unwilling to impose sanctions beyond those ordered by the United Nations.A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman declined to confirm or deny Tillerson's statement Friday, dismissing the question at a briefing as "hypothetical," the Associated Press reported.Impossible optionSouth Korea is in the midst of a presidential election brought on by the impeachment of former President Park for her alleged involvement in a multimillion dollar corruption scandal.The leading presidential candidate, Moon Jae-in, with the liberal leaning Democratic Party of Korea, has said he wants to postpone deploying the U.S. advanced anti-missile system until the new president takes office and can evaluate its benefits and drawbacks.Moon's spokesman Youn Kwan-suk Friday called for the THAAD deployment to be "immediately suspended," and a foreign policy adviser, Kim Ki-jung at Seoul's Yonsei University, said that purchasing THAAD would be "an impossible option," adding that the cost issue was a key concern behind the candidate's position that the deployment to be delayed.Moon is currently comfortably ahead in the most recent Gallup election poll, with 40 percent support.In the last year, South Korean public opinion on THAAD shifted from opposing to supporting the controversial American weapons system, as North Korea relentlessly moved forward with nuclear and ballistic missile tests in the face of increased international sanctions. An April 17 Chosun Ilbo newspaper survey found 60 percent of the South Korean public in favor of THAAD and 30 percent opposed.Ahn surprisedAhn Cheol-soo, the People's Party candidate who ranks second in the polls, has supported THAAD as a needed defense measure despite concerns among some of his more liberal supporters that it is not worth the risk of provoking North Korea and alienating China. Ahn is currently at 24 percent in the recent Gallup poll.Beijing charges the THAAD system's radar could be used to spy on China and has reportedly retaliated by limiting tourism to South Korea, imports of Korean cosmetics and entertainment, and shutting down some South Korean department stores in China.Ahn's deputy spokesman, Nemo Kim, said Friday she is surprised by Trump's demand and stated that the People's Party candidate would not support THAAD under such a condition."It's definitely something that the Korean people cannot agree to, obviously, since this deal took place with the current (acting) administration," Kim said.Kim also demanded the deal struck between the Park and Obama administrations be made public immediately to clarify what South Korea's obligations are.Conservative silentConservative Liberty Korea Party candidate Hong Joon-pyo, a strong THAAD supporter who is at 12 percent in the poll, has not yet commented on Trump's seeming demand for $1 billion in THAAD reimbursement costs.Admiral Harry Harris, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), said Wednesday during a congressional hearing in Washington the THAAD system will become operational "in the coming days."Also this week, THAAD components, including road-mobile launchers, interceptor missiles equipped with precise infrared-seeking technology, and the powerful radar system to target enemy missiles, were delivered to the designated deployment site on a Lotte-owned golf course in the rural southeastern part of the country.In the interview with Reuters, Trump also called the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement "horrible" and said "we are going to renegotiate that deal or terminate it."Youmi Kim contributed to this report.
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Tillerson calls for 'painful' measures to punish North Korea
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called Friday for new economic sanctions on North Korea and other "painful" measures over its nuclear weapons program, and he asked other countries to suspend diplomatic relations with the communist regime.Tillerson's push at a special session of the U.N. Security Council came as the Trump administration signaled it is willing to bargain directly with North Korea over ending its nuclear weapons program, but under strict conditions."Failing to act now on the most pressing security issue in the world may bring catastrophic consequences," Tillerson said. "The more we bide our time, the sooner we will run out of it."Past diplomatic efforts to talk North Korea out of its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities have failed, Tillerson said during the unusual high-level session called to review what the Trump administration calls its most dire national security concern.In blunt terms, Tillerson said North Korea is unlikely to give up its weapons or change its bellicose behavior under current sanctions and diplomatic condemnations. He said new economic penalties are necessary, as well as more vigorous enforcement of existing sanctions that he said North Korea has found ways to evade.Trump says 'major conflict' with North Korea possible
Embed SharePlay Video1:23President Trump said April 28 that he's pressing for a diplomatic solution to the standoff with North Korea over its nuclear program, but a military confrontation can't be ruled out. (Reuters)"I urge this council to act before North Korea does," Tillerson said. "We must work together to adopt a new approach and impose increased diplomatic and economic pressure on the North Korean regime."In a clear warning to North Korean ally China, Tillerson said nations that help North Korea evade sanctions or tolerate illicit trade that supports the regime "discredit this body.""We must levy new sanctions on DPRK entities and individuals supporting its weapons and missile programs, and tighten those already in place," he said, using the acronym for the country's formal name Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea.Tillerson's call for new sanctions followed remarks by President Trump that direct conflict is possible."There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely," Trump told Reuters in an interview this week.
The president added: "We'd love to solve things diplomatically, but it's very difficult."North Korea propaganda video shows simulated U.S. attack
Embed SharePlay Video2:28A North Korean propaganda video shows a simulated attack on the U.S., amid rising tensions between North Korea and the United States. (Arirangmeari.com)Tillerson noted that China accounts for 90 percent of North Korean trade, giving it unique economic leverage.He said the United States and China have had productive discussions about North Korea, and the new U.S. willingness to negotiate with North Korea is partly in deference to China's long insistence that the only way to lessen tension is through direct talks."The United States also would much prefer countries and people in question own up to their lapses and correct their behavior themselves, but we will not hesitate to sanction third country entities and individuals supporting the DPRK's illegal activities."He asked other nations to suspend or downgrade diplomatic relations with the regime, which he said has used diplomatic privileges to evade sanctions and flout the U.N. Security Council."Constraining its diplomatic activity will cut off a flow of needed resources. In light of North Korea's recent actions, normal relations with the DPRK are unacceptable," Tillerson said.He also asked other countries to stop any trade with North Korea that can indirectly fund the country's nuclear and missile programs, called for bans to prevent North Korean imports, especially coal and an end to a guest worker program that brings in low-cot labor to North Korea.In the most detailed explanation of the new Trump administration's emerging policy for dealing with North Korea, Tillerson said U.S. urgency is driven by the current nuclear threat to allies South Korea and Japan as well as the likelihood that North Korea will soon be able to strike the United States."All options for responding to future provocation must remain on the table. Diplomatic and financial levers of power will be backed up by a willingness to counteract North Korean aggression with military action if necessary," Tillerson said."We much prefer a negotiated solution to this problem. But we are committed to defending ourselves and our allies against North Korean aggression."
U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, who joined Tillerson and foreign ministers from countries that sit on the decision-making council, condemned what he called North Korea's repeated violations of the body's resolutions over nuclear and missile testing and development."I am alarmed by the risk of a military escalation in the region, including by miscalculation or misunderstanding," Guterres said.The U.N. Security Council session Friday comes at a particularly tense time in relations between North Korea and the United States, with the Trump administration sending warships to the region in a show of force against Kim Jong Un's regime.This week, North Korea conducted large-scale artillery drills, showing off conventional weaponry that can easily reach South Korea's capital, Seoul, the center of a metropolitan region that is home to about 25 million people.A North Korean propaganda outlet released a video clip on Thursday showing a simulated attack on the White House and declaring that ability to destroy the United States "is in our sights."The Trump administration has said that military action to head off further North Korean nuclear weapons development is not out of the question, but it remains unlikely. A goal of future U.N. diplomacy could be to draw lines for when escalation by North Korea would justify retaliatory action by the United States or others, diplomats and arms control experts said.At issue is the simultaneous effort in North Korea to perfect a nuclear warhead that could be delivered far from its shores and develop missiles with a range long enough to be a threat to the United States. Undeterred, analysts believe North Korea could have that capability within a few years — likely during Trump's first term in office. North Korea already possesses missiles able to threaten U.S. allies South Korea and Japan, as well as other Asian neighbors.In interviews Thursday with NPR and Fox News, Tillerson said the United States is willing to talk to North Korea once North Korea takes steps to show it is ready for a productive discussion.
In setting terms for direct talks — that they be directed at getting rid of North Korea's nuclear weapons entirely, rather than freezing the program in exchange for economic benefits — Tillerson said the Trump administration is taking a tougher line than in past efforts by both Democratic and Republican administrations, but it still caries strong echoes of earlier policy.At the Security Council, Tillerson said the United States prefers a diplomatic solution."North Korea must understand that respect will never follow recklessness," he said. "North Korea must take concrete steps to reduce the threat that its illegal weapons programs pose to the United States and our allies before we can consider talks."The last round of direct talks, initiated in 2003 and involving the United States, China and other nations, produced no rollback of the North Korean program. Last month, during his first trip to South Korea, Japan and China, Tillerson declared that the "era of strategic patience" that included those talks was over, and that "all options" were now on the table."I first spoke to the Chinese on my first trip to Beijing to make clear to them that we were unwilling to negotiate our way to the negotiating table," Tillerson said in the Fox News interview. "And I think that's the mistakes of the past," he added. "The regime in North Korea has to position itself in a different place in order for us to be willing to engage in talks."Trump has been urging China to apply pressure on North Korea and has warned that his administration will act if Beijing does not.China supports talks and has long argued that although it also wants to rid North Korea of nuclear weapons, it cannot persuade North Korea to give them up without direct assurances from the United States.Tillerson offered some Friday, telling the council that the United States is not seeking "regime change" to topple the family dynasty of Kim Jong Un.Although the council is not voting on new sanctions or other measures Friday, the Trump administration hoped for a show of force with the entire council, including China, Russia, and the United States, coming together to air concerns about North Korea's behavior.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the council that diplomacy is not hopeless, and he said China cannot be expected to rein in North Korea on its own.Checkpoint newsletterMilitary, defense and security at home and abroad."The state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula is not caused by any single party, nor is it reasonable to ask any party to take sole responsblity," Wang said via an interpreter."We call upon all parties, especially those directly concerned — DPRK and the U.S. — to demonstrate sincerity for dialogue and restart dialogue," Wang said. "China will be open too all useful proposals from the parties."Showing a willingness to hold talks with North Korea could help the United States get a more unified front, but Washington risks alienating other Security Council members if it tries to set terms other countries would see as unrealistic."Until and unless the United States shows a willingness to engage in at least 'talks about talks' with North Korea, it is very unlikely they will agree to support new sanctions against North Korea," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. "If Trump and his team insist on a North Korean commitment to 'denuclearization' before talks can begin, other members of [the] council will see the U.S. call for 'engagement' as unserious and will not support new … sanctions."
